Oversold

NOG

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth26/ 100
Upside potential39/ 100
Risk potential35/ 100

NOG's valuation appears fair, below average fundamentals limit its appeal and the outlook is broadly stable, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue +0.1%, operating margin -11.7 percentage points. Free cash flow is -37.7% of revenue. The business score is 26.1/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 22.8% upside, or about $32.64.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 34.9%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 35.1% downside, or about $17.25, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

NOG vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE67x7.3x816% higher
PE percentile975094% higher
EPS-$5.12-$0.14$4.98 lower
FCF-$838.5M-$304.9M-$533.5M
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NOG’s earnings are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

NOG Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStable
Forward earningsStable
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

NOG’s outlook is generally stable, though analyst coverage is limited.

NOG PE Valuation

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This table applies NOG's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

NOG Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks NOG's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

NOG Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks NOG's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

NOG Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks NOG's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

NOG Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in NOG's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

NOG Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

NOG PE vs Energy Sector

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This chart compares NOG's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Energy sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

NOG Weekly Price

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This chart uses NOG's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

NOG Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares NOG's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

NOG Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.