Oversold

NREF

Valuation15/ 100
Cash flow & growth56/ 100
Upside potential40/ 100
Risk potential25/ 100

NREF's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are below averages and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 11 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 3.2%, from $17.24 to $17.79. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 10.9 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 7.6× versus the full-history median of 4.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 17.3/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 14.7/100. The model applies a 0.5% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 4.2× (18-month half-life). A reliable earnings-based price target is unavailable. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -16.5%, earnings +9.4%, operating margin +44.7 percentage points. The business score is 56.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 16.6% upside, or about $20.74.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 24.9% downside, or about $13.36, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

NREF vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE7.6x5.9x30% higher
PE percentile765053% higher
EPS$2.33$3.5735% lower
FCF$6.9M$40.9M83% lower
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NREF’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

NREF Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueDecline
Forward profitability--
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

NREF’s outlook is weakening, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

NREF PE Valuation

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This table applies NREF's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

NREF Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks NREF's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

NREF Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks NREF's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

NREF Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks NREF's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

NREF Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in NREF's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

NREF Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

NREF PE vs Real Estate Sector

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This chart compares NREF's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Real Estate sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

NREF Weekly Price

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This chart uses NREF's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

NREF Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares NREF's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

NREF Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.