Oversold

NRG

Same as last week
Valuation8/ 100
Cash flow & growth71/ 100
Upside potential47/ 100
Risk potential36/ 100

NRG's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are below averages and forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 29.8× versus the full-history median of 8.7× shown in the valuation table, producing 7/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 7.5/100. The model applies a 25.5% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 23.9× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 29.4× PE and $5.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +25.1%, earnings +73.2%, operating margin +0.9 percentage points. Free cash flow is 0.9% of revenue. The business score is 71/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $5.22 of EPS and a 29.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $153.48. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 35.3% upside, or about $153.51.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $3.19 of EPS and a 22.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $72.57 — 36% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

NRG vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE30x21x44% higher
PE percentile875074% higher
EPS$3.81$5.1426% lower
FCF$348M$551.9M37% lower
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NRG’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

NRG Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

NRG’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

NRG PE Valuation

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This table applies NRG's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

NRG Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks NRG's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

NRG Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks NRG's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

NRG Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks NRG's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

NRG Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in NRG's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

NRG Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

NRG PE vs Utilities Sector

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This chart compares NRG's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Utilities sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

NRG Weekly Price

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This chart uses NRG's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

NRG Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares NRG's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

NRG Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.