Oversold

NVR

Valuation40/ 100
Cash flow & growth39/ 100
Upside potential27/ 100
Risk potential28/ 100

NVR's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are below averages, while forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth despite pressure on margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 6 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 1.5%, from $6396.27 to $6298.85.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 6.1 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 16× versus the full-history median of 15× shown in the valuation table, producing 45.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 39.8/100. The model applies a 0.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 15× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 15.3× PE and $420.4 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue -10.6%, earnings -18.7%, operating margin -2.6 percentage points. Free cash flow is 11.1% of revenue. The business score is 38.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $420.40 of EPS and a 15.3× PE, suggesting about $6440.32 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $7084.87. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $321.66 of EPS and a 13.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $4463.88 — 28% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

NVR vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE16x15x9% higher
PE percentile725043% higher
EPS$385.05$423.039% lower
FCF$1B$1.3B22% lower
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NVR’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

NVR Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

NVR’s outlook is generally improving, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

NVR PE Valuation

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This table applies NVR's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

NVR Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks NVR's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

NVR Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks NVR's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

NVR Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks NVR's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

NVR Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in NVR's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

NVR Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

NVR PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares NVR's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

NVR Weekly Price

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This chart uses NVR's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

NVR Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares NVR's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

NVR Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

TSLA

Valuation11/ 100
Cash flow & growth50/ 100
Upside potential22/ 100
Risk potential36/ 100

TSLA's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 13 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 1.5%, from $348.75 to $354.08. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 12.4 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 338.4× versus the full-history median of 151.3× shown in the valuation table, producing 12/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 10.9/100. The model applies a 3.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 174.8× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 265.1× PE and $1.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +11.8%, earnings -37.5%, operating margin -1.8 percentage points. Free cash flow is 5.6% of revenue. The business score is 49.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $1.21 of EPS and a 265.1× PE, suggesting about $320.10 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $420.26. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.91 of EPS and a 254.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $232.32 — 36% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

TSLA vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE338x275x23% higher
PE percentile785056% higher
EPS$1.08$2.3554% lower
FCF$5.8B$4.9B19% higher
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TSLA’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

TSLA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionWide

TSLA’s outlook is generally improving, though analysts differ widely on the estimates.

TSLA PE Valuation

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This table applies TSLA's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

TSLA Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks TSLA's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

TSLA Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks TSLA's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

TSLA Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks TSLA's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

TSLA Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in TSLA's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

TSLA Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

TSLA PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares TSLA's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

TSLA Weekly Price

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This chart uses TSLA's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

TSLA Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares TSLA's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

TSLA Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.