Oversold

OKTA

Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth84/ 100
Upside potential52/ 100
Risk potential28/ 100

OKTA's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 2 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 2.6%, from $166.23 to $170.60. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 1.2 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 100.3× versus the full-history median of 95.3× shown in the valuation table, producing 48.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 50.1/100. The model applies a 16.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 94.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 99.7× PE and $2.1 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +11.2%, earnings +75.9%, operating margin +5.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 31.6% of revenue. The business score is 84.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $2.07 of EPS and a 99.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $206.25. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 23.9% upside, or about $206.29.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.46 of EPS and a 82.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $120.51 — 28% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

OKTA vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE100x188x47% lower
PE percentile605019% higher
EPS$1.66-$2.33$3.99 higher
FCF$972M$386.2M152% higher
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OKTA’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

OKTA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionWide

OKTA’s outlook is generally improving, though analysts differ widely on the estimates.

OKTA PE Valuation

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This table applies OKTA's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

OKTA Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks OKTA's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

OKTA Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks OKTA's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

OKTA Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks OKTA's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

OKTA Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in OKTA's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

OKTA Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

OKTA PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares OKTA's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

OKTA Weekly Price

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This chart uses OKTA's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

OKTA Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares OKTA's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

OKTA Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.