Oversold

ON

Valuation23/ 100
Cash flow & growth73/ 100
Upside potential62/ 100
Risk potential36/ 100

ON's valuation is expensive while fundamentals provide solid support and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Score change since last week

The score fell 11 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 2.4%, from $72.61 to $74.38. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 10.4 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 48.8× versus the full-history median of 26.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 16.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 22.8/100. The model applies a 34% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 37.2× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 55.8× PE and $2.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue -3.1%, earnings +45.8%, operating margin +4.3 percentage points. Free cash flow is 28.6% of revenue. The business score is 73.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $2.25 of EPS and a 55.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $125.29. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 64.6% upside, or about $125.33.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.37 of EPS and a 35.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $48.83 — 36% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ON vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE49x41x19% higher
PE percentile765053% higher
EPS$1.56$2.6842% lower
FCF$1.8B$1.2B53% higher
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ON’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

ON Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionModerate

ON’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

ON PE Valuation

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This table applies ON's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ON Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ON's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ON Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ON's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ON Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ON's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ON Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ON's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ON Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ON PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares ON's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ON Weekly Price

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This chart uses ON's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ON Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ON's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ON Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.