The score fell 5 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 2.2%, from $15.13 to $15.46. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 4.3 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Historical cheapness: current PE is 8× versus the full-history median of 7× shown in the valuation table, producing 40.4/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 39.4/100. The model applies a 8.3% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 8.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 8.2× PE and $2.3 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +7.1%, earnings +30.4%, operating margin +4.4 percentage points. The business score is 69.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $2.26 of EPS and a 8.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $18.63 — 20% above today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.63 of EPS and a 6.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $10.82 — 30% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.