Oversold

ORCL

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth54/ 100
Upside potential43/ 100
Risk potential38/ 100

ORCL's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +17.4%, earnings +34.3%, operating margin +0 percentage points. Free cash flow is -40% of revenue. The business score is 54.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 28.7% upside, or about $193.41.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 26.3%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 38.4% downside, or about $92.57, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ORCL vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE24x29x18% lower
PE percentile47506% lower
EPS$6.38$3.9362% higher
FCF-$28.7B$4.4B748% lower
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ORCL’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

ORCL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionTight

ORCL’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

ORCL PE Valuation

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This table applies ORCL's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ORCL Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ORCL's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ORCL Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ORCL's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ORCL Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ORCL's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ORCL Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ORCL's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ORCL Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ORCL PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares ORCL's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ORCL Weekly Price

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This chart uses ORCL's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ORCL Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ORCL's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ORCL Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

SMCI

Valuation82/ 100
Cash flow & growth66/ 100
Upside potential82/ 100
Risk potential26/ 100

SMCI's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals provide solid support and forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth despite pressure on margins.

Score change since last week

The score rose 9 points, mainly due to business results and financial strength. Price rose 6.8%, from $37.08 to $39.59. Reported annual EPS changed from $1.91 to $3.26.

Business results and financial strength added 5.4 points. Valuation and price changes added 3.9 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 12.3× versus the full-history median of 18.7× shown in the valuation table, producing 75.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 81.6/100. The model applies a 37.5% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 20.5× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 19.5× PE and $4.8 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +77.8%, earnings +183.5%, operating margin +1.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is -17.8% of revenue. The business score is 65.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $4.85 of EPS and a 19.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $94.49. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 135.6% upside, or about $94.48.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.83 of EPS and a 10.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $29.71 — 26% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

SMCI vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE12x21x42% lower
PE percentile145071% lower
EPS$3.26$1.02219% higher
FCF-$7B-$611.5M-$6.4B
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SMCI’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

SMCI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

SMCI’s outlook is generally improving, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

SMCI PE Valuation

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This table applies SMCI's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

SMCI Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks SMCI's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

SMCI Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks SMCI's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

SMCI Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks SMCI's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

SMCI Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in SMCI's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

SMCI Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

SMCI PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares SMCI's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

SMCI Weekly Price

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This chart uses SMCI's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

SMCI Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares SMCI's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

SMCI Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.