Oversold

PROV

Valuation24/ 100
Cash flow & growth55/ 100
Upside potential29/ 100
Risk potential25/ 100

PROV's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are below averages, while forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 7 points, mainly due to business results and financial strength. Price rose 1.9%, from $18.35 to $18.70. Reported annual EPS changed from $0.93 to $1.02.

Business results and financial strength subtracted 7.3 points. Valuation and price changes subtracted 0.2 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 18.3× versus the full-history median of 12.6× shown in the valuation table, producing 26.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 24.3/100. The model applies a 5.3% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 15.5× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 17× PE and $1.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -0.9%, earnings +9.7%, operating margin +1.4 percentage points. The business score is 55.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $1.16 of EPS and a 17× PE, suggesting about $19.74 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $21.50. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.86 of EPS and a 16.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $14.05 — 25% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

PROV vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE18x14x36% higher
PE percentile925084% higher
EPS$1.02$1.064% lower
FCF$8.8M$10.1M13% lower
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PROV’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

PROV Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

PROV’s outlook is generally improving, with declining sales expectations a concern.

PROV PE Valuation

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This table applies PROV's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

PROV Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks PROV's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

PROV Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks PROV's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

PROV Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks PROV's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

PROV Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in PROV's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

PROV Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

PROV PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares PROV's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

PROV Weekly Price

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This chart uses PROV's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

PROV Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares PROV's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

PROV Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.