Historical cheapness: current PE is 19.8× versus the full-history median of 12.4× shown in the valuation table, producing 22.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 24.3/100. The model applies a 17% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 14.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 17.1× PE and $15.6 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +1%, earnings +4.9%, operating margin -1.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 5.3% of revenue. The business score is 50.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $15.56 of EPS and a 17.1× PE, suggesting about $265.71 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $279.80. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $10.52 of EPS and a 16.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $170.15 — 30% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.