Oversold

RKLB

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth77/ 100
Upside potential55/ 100
Risk potential56/ 100

RKLB's valuation appears fair while fundamentals provide solid support and forward estimates point to narrowing losses and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +52.5%, operating margin +15 percentage points. The business score is 76.8/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 67.9% upside, or about $105.69.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 28.2%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 55.6% downside, or about $27.95, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

RKLB vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
EPS-$0.28-$0.31$0.04 higher
FCF-$398.4M-$148.2M-$250.1M
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RKLB’s earnings are above their historical averages.

RKLB Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsLoss narrowing
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

RKLB’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

RKLB PE Valuation

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This table applies RKLB's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

RKLB Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks RKLB's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

RKLB Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks RKLB's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

RKLB Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks RKLB's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

RKLB Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in RKLB's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

RKLB Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

RKLB PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares RKLB's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

RKLB Weekly Price

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This chart uses RKLB's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

RKLB Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares RKLB's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

RKLB Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.

UPS

Same as last week
Valuation44/ 100
Cash flow & growth44/ 100
Upside potential37/ 100
Risk potential28/ 100

UPS's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are below averages, while forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 18.6× versus the full-history median of 15.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 39.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 44/100. The model applies a 20% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 16× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 16.8× PE and $6.9 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -0.3%, earnings -20.1%, operating margin -2.2 percentage points. Free cash flow is 6.1% of revenue. The business score is 43.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $6.93 of EPS and a 16.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $116.75. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 16.4% upside, or about $116.73.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $4.68 of EPS and a 15.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $71.92 — 28% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

UPS vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE19x19x0% higher
PE percentile735045% higher
EPS$5.38$8.3035% lower
FCF$5.5B$6.7B18% lower
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UPS’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

UPS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionTight

UPS’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

UPS PE Valuation

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This table applies UPS's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

UPS Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks UPS's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

UPS Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks UPS's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

UPS Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks UPS's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

UPS Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in UPS's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

UPS Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

UPS PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares UPS's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

UPS Weekly Price

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This chart uses UPS's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

UPS Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares UPS's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

UPS Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.