Oversold

ROKU

Valuation70/ 100
Cash flow & growth80/ 100
Upside potential75/ 100
Risk potential21/ 100

ROKU's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score rose 4 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 1.3%, from $157.68 to $155.59. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 4.1 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 66.2× versus the full-history median of 104.7× shown in the valuation table, producing 66.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 69.8/100. The model applies a 42% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 104.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 84.3× PE and $3.6 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +18.5%, operating margin +8.8 percentage points. Free cash flow is 15.8% of revenue. The business score is 80/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $3.60 of EPS and a 84.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $303.08. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 95.6% upside, or about $303.04.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.04 of EPS and a 60× PE, suggesting a share price of about $122.34 — 21% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ROKU vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE66x158x58% lower
PE percentile9.65081% lower
EPS$2.34-$1.24$3.58 higher
FCF$825M$178.1M363% higher
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ROKU’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

ROKU Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

ROKU’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

ROKU PE Valuation

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This table applies ROKU's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ROKU Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ROKU's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ROKU Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ROKU's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ROKU Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ROKU's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ROKU Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ROKU's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ROKU Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ROKU PE vs Communication Services Sector

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This chart compares ROKU's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Communication Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ROKU Weekly Price

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This chart uses ROKU's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ROKU Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ROKU's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ROKU Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.