Oversold

SM

Same as last week
Valuation26/ 100
Cash flow & growth50/ 100
Upside potential34/ 100
Risk potential38/ 100

SM's valuation is somewhat elevated, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Estimated operating-earnings valuation: current PE is 14.9x versus 4.1x in comparable estimated history. The model caps earnings at operating profit after interest, assuming proportional tax and per-share effects. This is an estimate, not a verified investment-gain adjustment.

Reported EPS and PE remain in the valuation table. The same estimate is applied to historical earnings and eligible price scenarios. Its contribution to the score is limited by the available evidence; it does not identify all non-recurring items. Comparable history: 95 weeks.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +77.5%, operating margin -12 percentage points. Free cash flow is -0.7% of revenue. The business score is 49.8/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $3.36 of EPS and a 11.9× PE, suggesting about $39.97 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $43.81. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.19 of EPS and a 11× PE, suggesting a share price of about $24.22 — 38% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

SM vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE9.9x16x39% lower
PE percentile855070% higher
EPS$3.85$3.4611% higher
FCF-$37.5M$64.6M158% lower
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SM’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

SM Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionWide

SM’s outlook is generally improving, though analysts differ widely on the estimates.

SM PE Valuation

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This table applies SM's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

SM Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks SM's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

SM Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks SM's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

SM Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks SM's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

SM Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in SM's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

SM Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

SM PE vs Energy Sector

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This chart compares SM's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Energy sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

SM Weekly Price

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This chart uses SM's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

SM Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares SM's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

SM Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.