Oversold

SMFG

Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth82/ 100
Upside potential44/ 100
Risk potential28/ 100

SMFG's valuation appears fair while strong fundamentals support the investment case and forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 5.3%, from $25.92 to $27.30. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 0.9 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +65.9%, earnings +104.5%, operating margin +6.3 percentage points. The business score is 81.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 21.6% upside, or about $33.18.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 27.6% downside, or about $19.76, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

SMFG vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE6.8x5.4x26% higher
PE percentile755050% higher
EPS$4.03$1.83121% higher
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SMFG’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

SMFG Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

SMFG’s outlook is generally improving, with declining sales expectations a concern.

SMFG PE Valuation

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This table applies SMFG's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

SMFG Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks SMFG's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

SMFG Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks SMFG's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

SMFG Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks SMFG's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

SMFG Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in SMFG's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

SMFG Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

SMFG PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares SMFG's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

SMFG Weekly Price

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This chart uses SMFG's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

SMFG Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares SMFG's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

SMFG Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.