Oversold

SMPL

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth38/ 100
Upside potential36/ 100
Risk potential36/ 100

SMPL's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are below averages and the outlook sends mixed signals.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are weak. Over the past year: revenue -4.5%, operating margin -10.7 percentage points. Free cash flow is 8.6% of revenue. The business score is 38.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 20.3% upside, or about $11.84.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

The 36.1% downside is driven by operating stress: the model assumes earnings fall 21.7% and the PE falls 18.5%. That gives $0.50 per share at a 12.7× PE, or about $6.28. Price swings alone suggest 32.3% downside.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

SMPL vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE16x53x71% lower
PE percentile0.65099% lower
EPS-$2.17$0.93333% lower
FCF$119.4M$147.8M19% lower
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SMPL’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

SMPL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStable
Forward earningsStable
Forward revenueDecline
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

SMPL’s outlook is mixed, with declining sales expectations a concern.

SMPL PE Valuation

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This table applies SMPL's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

SMPL Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks SMPL's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

SMPL Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks SMPL's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

SMPL Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks SMPL's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

SMPL Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in SMPL's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

SMPL Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

SMPL PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector

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This chart compares SMPL's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Defensive sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

SMPL Weekly Price

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This chart uses SMPL's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

SMPL Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares SMPL's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

SMPL Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.