The score fell 4 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 4.0%, from $12.40 to $11.91.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 4.2 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Historical cheapness: current PE is 1.6× versus the full-history median of 1.4× shown in the valuation table, producing 41.8/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 37.1/100. The model applies a 0% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 1.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 1.5× PE and $8 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: limited comparable growth data. The business score is 50/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $8.04 of EPS and a 1.5× PE, suggesting about $11.72 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $13.70. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $6.25 of EPS and a 1.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $7.23 — 39% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.