Oversold

STWD

Valuation10/ 100
Cash flow & growth52/ 100
Upside potential36/ 100
Risk potential18/ 100

STWD's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth despite pressure on margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 12 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 1.7%, from $15.81 to $16.08. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 11.8 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 22.9× versus the full-history median of 10× shown in the valuation table, producing 11.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 10.1/100. The model applies a 1% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 15.2× (18-month half-life). A reliable earnings-based price target is unavailable. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +10.5%, earnings -36.9%, operating margin +0.4 percentage points. The business score is 51.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 15% upside, or about $17.96. This uses the 15% minimum allowance.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 17.7% downside, or about $12.86, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

STWD vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE23x11x107% higher
PE percentile995099% higher
EPS$0.68$1.5355% lower
FCF$438.6M$269.4M63% higher
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STWD’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

STWD Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

STWD’s outlook is generally improving, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

STWD PE Valuation

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This table applies STWD's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

STWD Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks STWD's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

STWD Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks STWD's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

STWD Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks STWD's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

STWD Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in STWD's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

STWD Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

STWD PE vs Real Estate Sector

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This chart compares STWD's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Real Estate sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

STWD Weekly Price

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This chart uses STWD's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

STWD Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares STWD's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

STWD Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.