Oversold

TAL

Valuation58/ 100
Cash flow & growth84/ 100
Upside potential52/ 100
Risk potential42/ 100

TAL's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score rose 5 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 3.9%, from $11.94 to $12.40.

Valuation and price changes added 5.3 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Estimated operating-earnings valuation: current PE is 4.8x versus 37.6x in comparable estimated history. The model caps earnings at operating profit after interest, assuming proportional tax and per-share effects. This is an estimate, not a verified investment-gain adjustment.

Reported EPS and PE remain in the valuation table. The same estimate is applied to historical earnings and eligible price scenarios. Its contribution to the score is limited by the available evidence; it does not identify all non-recurring items. Comparable history: 27 weeks.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +32.6%, operating margin +11.3 percentage points. Free cash flow is 20% of revenue. The business score is 84.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $3.69 of EPS and a 6.1× PE, suggesting a share price of about $22.33 — 89% above today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.16 of EPS and a 4.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $9.33 — 42% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

TAL vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE2.4x29x92% lower
PE percentile25096% lower
EPS$4.86-$3.09$7.95 higher
FCF$638.3M$310.3M106% higher
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TAL’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

TAL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsStrong decline
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionWide

TAL’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

TAL PE Valuation

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This table applies TAL's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

TAL Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks TAL's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

TAL Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks TAL's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

TAL Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks TAL's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

TAL Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in TAL's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

TAL Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

TAL PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector

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This chart compares TAL's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Defensive sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

TAL Weekly Price

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This chart uses TAL's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

TAL Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares TAL's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

TAL Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.