Historical cheapness: current PE is 13.5× versus the full-history median of 14.4× shown in the valuation table, producing 54.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 38.9/100. The model applies a -12.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 14× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 13.3× PE and $2.8 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +9.9%, earnings -27%, operating margin -8.5 percentage points. Free cash flow is 4.2% of revenue. The business score is 41/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $2.75 of EPS and a 13.3× PE, suggesting about $36.68 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $44.07. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.94 of EPS and a 11.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $22.97 — 40% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.