Oversold

TLYS

Valuation6/ 100
Cash flow & growth65/ 100
Upside potential27/ 100
Risk potential44/ 100

TLYS's valuation is expensive while fundamentals provide solid support and the outlook sends mixed signals, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 11 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 11.1%, from $3.96 to $4.40. Reported annual EPS changed from $-0.10 to $0.06.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 6.7 points. Business results and financial strength subtracted 4.8 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 72.7× versus the full-history median of 9.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 5.7/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 5.7/100. The model applies a 2% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 10.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 50.6× PE and $0.1 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +6.1%, operating margin +4.5 percentage points. Free cash flow is 1.9% of revenue. The business score is 64.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $0.07 of EPS and a 50.6× PE, suggesting about $3.37 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $5.06. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.05 of EPS and a 48.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $2.48 — 44% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

TLYS vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE73x38x93% higher
PE percentile925084% higher
EPS$0.06-$0.11$0.17 higher
FCF$11.3M-$926.1K+$12.2M
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TLYS’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

TLYS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsTurning positive
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

TLYS’s outlook is mixed, supported by an expected return to profitability.

TLYS PE Valuation

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This table applies TLYS's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

TLYS Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks TLYS's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

TLYS Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks TLYS's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

TLYS Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks TLYS's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

TLYS Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in TLYS's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

TLYS Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

TLYS PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares TLYS's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

TLYS Weekly Price

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This chart uses TLYS's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

TLYS Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares TLYS's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

TLYS Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.