Oversold

TTD

Valuation95/ 100
Cash flow & growth73/ 100
Upside potential52/ 100
Risk potential29/ 100

TTD's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are above averages, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score rose 13 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 6.3%, from $13.57 to $14.43.

Valuation and price changes added 13.0 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 16.9× versus the full-history median of 176.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 94.9/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 94.9/100. The model applies a -12.3% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 86.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 21.9× PE and $0.8 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +11.6%, earnings +2.4%, operating margin +1.9 percentage points. Free cash flow is 28.8% of revenue. The business score is 72.5/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

A depressed valuation offers recovery potential if earnings stabilize. A recovery is not yet confirmed by operating results. Over the past year, revenue +11.6% and operating margin 1.9 percentage points.

This recovery case holds projected earnings at $0.75 per share. A 28.4× PE suggests $21.17, or 47.7% upside. The lower to middle historical valuation range sets the target, with typical price movements limiting the rebound. Peak profits and valuations are not required.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.62 of EPS and a 16.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $10.22 — 29% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

TTD vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE17x207x92% lower
PE percentile1.25098% lower
EPS$0.85$0.4782% higher
FCF$860.4M$522.6M65% higher
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TTD’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

TTD Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsStrong decline
Forward revenueDecline
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionWide

TTD’s outlook is weakening, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

TTD PE Valuation

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This table applies TTD's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

TTD Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks TTD's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

TTD Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks TTD's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

TTD Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks TTD's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

TTD Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in TTD's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

TTD Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

TTD PE vs Technology Sector

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This chart compares TTD's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Technology sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

TTD Weekly Price

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This chart uses TTD's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

TTD Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares TTD's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

TTD Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.