Oversold

TWFG

Valuation32/ 100
Cash flow & growth65/ 100
Upside potential38/ 100
Risk potential33/ 100

TWFG's valuation is somewhat elevated, fundamentals are above averages, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 6 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 3.7%, from $30.01 to $28.89.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 6.0 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 78.4× versus the full-history median of 36.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 31.8/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 32.3/100. The model applies a 20.4% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 36.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 65.4× PE and $0.5 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +37.3%, earnings -52.2%, operating margin +3.9 percentage points. The business score is 65.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $0.48 of EPS and a 65.4× PE, suggesting about $31.39 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $33.22. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.31 of EPS and a 61.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $19.26 — 33% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

TWFG vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE78x39x103% higher
PE percentile9949100% higher
EPS$0.37$0.2734% higher
FCF$45M$23.9M88% higher
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TWFG’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

TWFG Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

TWFG’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

TWFG PE Valuation

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This table applies TWFG's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

TWFG Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks TWFG's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

TWFG Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks TWFG's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

TWFG Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks TWFG's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

TWFG Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in TWFG's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

TWFG Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

TWFG PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares TWFG's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

TWFG Weekly Price

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This chart uses TWFG's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

TWFG Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares TWFG's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

TWFG Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.