Oversold

UAN

Valuation43/ 100
Cash flow & growth87/ 100
Upside potential37/ 100
Risk potential34/ 100

UAN's valuation appears fair while strong fundamentals support the investment case.

Score change since last week

The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 4.4%, from $125.28 to $130.80. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 0.9 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 9× versus the full-history median of 8.4× shown in the valuation table, producing 45.3/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 43.4/100. The model applies a 6.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 10.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 9.3× PE and $18 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +17.5%, earnings +82.2%, operating margin +7.7 percentage points. Free cash flow is 21.4% of revenue. The business score is 87.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $18.02 of EPS and a 9.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $167.47. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 23.2% upside, or about $167.40.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $11.83 of EPS and a 7.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $89.86 — 34% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

UAN vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE9x77x88% lower
PE percentile54508% higher
EPS$15.16$9.4261% higher
FCF$144.6M$157.4M8% lower
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UAN’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

UAN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
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UAN PE Valuation

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This table applies UAN's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

UAN Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks UAN's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

UAN Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks UAN's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

UAN Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks UAN's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

UAN Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in UAN's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

UAN Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

UAN PE vs Basic Materials Sector

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This chart compares UAN's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Basic Materials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

UAN Weekly Price

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This chart uses UAN's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

UAN Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares UAN's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

UAN Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.