Oversold

UBCP

Valuation23/ 100
Cash flow & growth56/ 100
Upside potential28/ 100
Risk potential32/ 100

UBCP's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 9 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 1.1%, from $15.71 to $15.88. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 8.7 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 11.3× versus the full-history median of 7.6× shown in the valuation table, producing 25.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 22.7/100. The model applies a 4% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 9.6× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 10.7× PE and $1.6 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +6.2%, earnings +10.2%, operating margin -0.2 percentage points. The business score is 55.8/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $1.61 of EPS and a 10.7× PE, suggesting about $17.15 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $18.26. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $1.11 of EPS and a 9.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $10.73 — 32% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

UBCP vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE11x8.1x40% higher
PE percentile955090% higher
EPS$1.40$1.464% lower
FCF$6.5M$5.9M9% higher
Loading historical comparisons…

UBCP’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

UBCP Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

UBCP’s outlook is generally improving, with declining sales expectations a concern.

UBCP PE Valuation

Loading pe valuation table…

This table applies UBCP's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

UBCP Earnings Per Share

Loading earnings per share…

This chart tracks UBCP's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

UBCP Quarterly Revenue

Loading quarterly revenue…

This chart tracks UBCP's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

UBCP Free Cash Flow

Loading free cash flow…

This chart tracks UBCP's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

UBCP Total Shares

Loading shares over time…

This chart tracks changes in UBCP's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

UBCP Net Leverage

Loading net leverage…

Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

UBCP PE vs Financial Services Sector

Loading pe vs sector average…

This chart compares UBCP's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

UBCP Weekly Price

Loading weekly price…

This chart uses UBCP's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

UBCP Weekly Moving Averages

Loading weekly moving averages…

This chart compares UBCP's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

UBCP Yearly ROI

Loading yearly ROI…

Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.