The score fell 3 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 0.2%, from $38.01 to $37.94.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 3.3 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Historical cheapness: current PE is 12.7× versus the full-history median of 11.4× shown in the valuation table, producing 42.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 42.6/100. The model applies a 10.2% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 12.2× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 12.2× PE and $3.6 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -0.5%, earnings +57.4%, operating margin +0.5 percentage points. Free cash flow is 2.6% of revenue. The business score is 58.8/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $3.56 of EPS and a 12.2× PE, suggesting about $43.46 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $43.69. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.53 of EPS and a 10.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $27.53 — 28% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.