Oversold

ULCC

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth42/ 100
Upside potential48/ 100
Risk potential54/ 100

ULCC's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to narrowing losses and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +10%, operating margin -8.3 percentage points. Free cash flow is -3% of revenue. The business score is 42/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 49.2% upside, or about $8.39.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 42.2%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 54.3% downside, or about $2.57, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ULCC vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE13x17x22% lower
PE percentile375027% lower
EPS-$1.68-$0.38$1.30 lower
FCF-$126M-$272.5M+$146.5M
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ULCC’s earnings are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

ULCC Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsLoss narrowing
Forward revenueStrong growth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

ULCC’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

ULCC PE Valuation

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This table applies ULCC's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ULCC Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ULCC's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ULCC Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ULCC's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ULCC Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ULCC's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ULCC Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ULCC's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ULCC Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ULCC PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares ULCC's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ULCC Weekly Price

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This chart uses ULCC's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ULCC Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ULCC's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ULCC Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.