Oversold

UMH

Valuation69/ 100
Cash flow & growth61/ 100
Upside potential38/ 100
Risk potential19/ 100

UMH's valuation is historically cheap, fundamentals are below averages, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 3.2%, from $16.48 to $15.95. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 0.5 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 86.2× versus the full-history median of 128.3× shown in the valuation table, producing 74.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 68.9/100. The model applies a -1.1% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 144× (18-month half-life). A reliable earnings-based price target is unavailable. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +8.4%, earnings +31.3%, operating margin +0.1 percentage points. The business score is 61/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 15% upside, or about $17.84. This uses the 15% minimum allowance.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 18.8% downside, or about $12.59, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

UMH vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE86x147x42% lower
PE percentile405021% lower
EPS$0.18$0.197% lower
FCF$32.5M$58M44% lower
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UMH’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

UMH Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly deteriorating
Forward earningsStrong decline
Forward revenueDecline
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

UMH’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

UMH PE Valuation

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This table applies UMH's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

UMH Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks UMH's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

UMH Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks UMH's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

UMH Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks UMH's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

UMH Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in UMH's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

UMH Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

UMH PE vs Real Estate Sector

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This chart compares UMH's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Real Estate sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

UMH Weekly Price

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This chart uses UMH's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

UMH Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares UMH's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

UMH Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.