Historical cheapness: current PE is 43.3× versus the full-history median of 25.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 20.4/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 19.9/100. The model applies a 8.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 26.4× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 38× PE and $7.5 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +1.4%, earnings -22.1%, operating margin -1.9 percentage points. Free cash flow is 3.5% of revenue. The business score is 43.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $7.45 of EPS and a 38× PE, suggesting about $282.78 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $315.88. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $5.37 of EPS and a 36.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $195.25 — 29% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.