Oversold

VALE

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth73/ 100
Upside potential36/ 100
Risk potential29/ 100

VALE's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are below averages and forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +14.2%, operating margin +4.8 percentage points. Free cash flow is 9.4% of revenue. The business score is 73.3/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 16.4% upside, or about $17.73.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

The 28.9% downside is driven by operating stress: the model assumes earnings fall 17.8% and the PE falls 13.5%. That gives $0.39 per share at a 27.5× PE, or about $10.84. Price swings alone suggest 24.7% downside.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

VALE vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE32x9.2x246% higher
PE percentile995098% higher
EPS$0.48$2.2779% lower
FCF$3.9B$8.7B56% lower
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VALE’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

VALE Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

VALE’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

VALE PE Valuation

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This table applies VALE's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

VALE Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks VALE's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

VALE Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks VALE's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

VALE Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks VALE's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

VALE Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in VALE's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

VALE Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

VALE PE vs Basic Materials Sector

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This chart compares VALE's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Basic Materials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

VALE Weekly Price

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This chart uses VALE's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

VALE Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares VALE's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

VALE Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.