Oversold

VEL

Valuation70/ 100
Cash flow & growth81/ 100
Upside potential53/ 100
Risk potential20/ 100

VEL's valuation is historically cheap, strong fundamentals support the investment case, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score rose 6 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 2.3%, from $18.01 to $18.43.

Valuation and price changes added 5.7 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 6.7× versus the full-history median of 9.8× shown in the valuation table, producing 73.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 70.2/100. The model applies a 3.9% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 8.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 7.5× PE and $3.1 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +32.5%, earnings +25.7%, operating margin +41.2 percentage points. The business score is 80.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $3.09 of EPS and a 7.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $23.33 — 26% above today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.27 of EPS and a 6.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $14.78 — 20% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

VEL vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE6.7x9.4x28% lower
PE percentile145073% lower
EPS$2.74$1.08153% higher
FCF$22.4M$44.1M49% lower
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VEL’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

VEL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

VEL’s outlook is weakening, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

VEL PE Valuation

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This table applies VEL's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

VEL Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks VEL's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

VEL Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks VEL's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

VEL Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks VEL's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

VEL Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in VEL's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

VEL Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

VEL PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares VEL's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

VEL Weekly Price

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This chart uses VEL's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

VEL Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares VEL's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

VEL Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.