Oversold

VLRS

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth53/ 100
Upside potential44/ 100
Risk potential41/ 100

VLRS's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed and weaker than expected earnings are holding it back, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +9.1%, operating margin -5.5 percentage points. Free cash flow is 17.1% of revenue. The business score is 52.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 32.5% upside, or about $9.08.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 38.5%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 40.6% downside, or about $4.07, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

VLRS vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE13x22x43% lower
PE percentile585015% higher
EPS-$1.63-$0.16$1.48 lower
FCF$563M$417.8M35% higher
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VLRS’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

VLRS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuation--
Forward earningsLoss widening
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

VLRS’s outlook is mixed, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

VLRS PE Valuation

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This table applies VLRS's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

VLRS Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks VLRS's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

VLRS Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks VLRS's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

VLRS Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks VLRS's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

VLRS Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in VLRS's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

VLRS Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

VLRS PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares VLRS's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

VLRS Weekly Price

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This chart uses VLRS's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

VLRS Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares VLRS's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

VLRS Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.