Oversold

WMT

Valuation38/ 100
Cash flow & growth57/ 100
Upside potential42/ 100
Risk potential25/ 100

WMT's valuation is somewhat elevated, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth.

Score change since last week

The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 3.9%, from $103.09 to $107.14. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 0.7 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 38.7× versus the full-history median of 32.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 39.1/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 38.4/100. The model applies a 8.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 39× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 39.3× PE and $3.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +6.2%, earnings +4.1%, operating margin +0.2 percentage points. Free cash flow is 1.8% of revenue. The business score is 56.5/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $3.22 of EPS and a 39.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $126.72. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 18.3% upside, or about $126.76.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.41 of EPS and a 33.5× PE, suggesting a share price of about $80.66 — 25% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

WMT vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE39x33x17% higher
PE percentile675035% higher
EPS$2.77$1.9443% higher
FCF$13.5B$14.7B8% lower
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WMT’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

WMT Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageBroad
Estimate dispersionModerate

WMT’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

WMT PE Valuation

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This table applies WMT's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

WMT Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks WMT's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

WMT Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks WMT's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

WMT Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks WMT's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

WMT Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in WMT's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

WMT Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

WMT PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector

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This chart compares WMT's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Defensive sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

WMT Weekly Price

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This chart uses WMT's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

WMT Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares WMT's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

WMT Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.