Oversold

XPO

Valuation32/ 100
Cash flow & growth66/ 100
Upside potential52/ 100
Risk potential35/ 100

XPO's valuation is somewhat elevated, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Score change since last week

The score fell 9 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 2.4%, from $188.56 to $193.10. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 9.4 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 53.7× versus the full-history median of 35.8× shown in the valuation table, producing 25.1/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 32/100. The model applies a 29.3% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 48.9× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 53.7× PE and $4.7 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +7%, earnings +17.7%, operating margin +1.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 6.9% of revenue. The business score is 65.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $4.71 of EPS and a 53.7× PE, suggesting a share price of about $253.26. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 39% upside, or about $253.23.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $2.96 of EPS and a 40.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $119.37 — 35% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

XPO vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE54x45x18% higher
PE percentile785056% higher
EPS$3.39$2.9615% higher
FCF$588M$105.4M458% higher
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XPO’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

XPO Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionTight

XPO’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

XPO PE Valuation

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This table applies XPO's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

XPO Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks XPO's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

XPO Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks XPO's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

XPO Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks XPO's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

XPO Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in XPO's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

XPO Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

XPO PE vs Industrials Sector

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This chart compares XPO's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

XPO Weekly Price

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This chart uses XPO's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

XPO Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares XPO's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

XPO Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.