Oversold

YPF

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth59/ 100
Upside potential43/ 100
Risk potential43/ 100

YPF's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth despite pressure on margins, though analyst coverage is limited and estimates vary widely.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +196%, earnings -6.6%, operating margin +2.2 percentage points. The business score is 58.9/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 32% upside, or about $73.33.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 22.2%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 42.6% downside, or about $31.89, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

YPF vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE29x8.8x233% higher
PE percentile10049102% higher
EPS$1.90-$0.56$2.46 higher
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YPF’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

YPF Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityContracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionWide

YPF’s outlook is generally improving, with narrowing profit margins the main concern.

YPF PE Valuation

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This table applies YPF's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

YPF Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks YPF's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

YPF Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks YPF's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

YPF Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks YPF's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

YPF Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in YPF's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

YPF Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

YPF PE vs Energy Sector

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This chart compares YPF's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Energy sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

YPF Weekly Price

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This chart uses YPF's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

YPF Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares YPF's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

YPF Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.