Oversold

ZUMZ

Valuation32/ 100
Cash flow & growth68/ 100
Upside potential63/ 100
Risk potential36/ 100

ZUMZ's valuation is somewhat elevated, fundamentals are below averages and the outlook sends mixed signals, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 7 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 0.8%, from $18.18 to $18.03.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 7.7 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 21.7× versus the full-history median of 13.7× shown in the valuation table, producing 22.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 32.3/100. The model applies a 42.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 24.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 24.4× PE and $1.3 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +4.7%, earnings +10966.7%, operating margin +2.3 percentage points. Free cash flow is 3.6% of revenue. The business score is 67.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $1.28 of EPS and a 24.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $31.29. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 73.5% upside, or about $31.28.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.72 of EPS and a 15.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $11.54 — 36% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ZUMZ vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE22x127x83% lower
PE percentile745049% higher
EPS$0.72$1.1638% lower
FCF$33.5M$44M24% lower
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ZUMZ’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

ZUMZ Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

ZUMZ’s outlook is mixed, though analyst coverage is limited.

ZUMZ PE Valuation

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This table applies ZUMZ's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ZUMZ Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ZUMZ's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ZUMZ Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ZUMZ's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ZUMZ Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ZUMZ's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ZUMZ Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ZUMZ's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ZUMZ Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ZUMZ PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares ZUMZ's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ZUMZ Weekly Price

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This chart uses ZUMZ's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ZUMZ Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ZUMZ's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ZUMZ Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.