Why Is Campbell's Stock Down 62%? Earnings Collapse, Snack Segment Crisis, and S&P 500 Removal Risk

Why Is Campbell's Down So Much?

Campbell's stock (CPB) just hit an all-time low of $21.19. The stock is down 62.5% from its December 2022 peak of $57.77. It is now trading at $21.66 — a price not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. This is not a slow bleed. The decline has accelerated in 2026, with shares falling from $27.64 in late December to current levels in under three months.

So what is driving this? Three specific, compounding problems.

What Is Driving the Selloff

1. Disastrous Q2 Fiscal 2026 Earnings

On March 11, Campbell's reported Q2 fiscal 2026 results that missed on every metric that matters. The numbers tell the story:

The stock fell 7.1% on earnings day alone. Management then slashed full-year fiscal 2026 guidance to $2.15-$2.25 in adjusted EPS — down from the already-lowered $2.40-$2.55 range. That represents a 23-26% decline versus fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.91.

2. The Snacks Segment Is Imploding

The snacks division is the primary drag. Snack segment sales fell 6% year-over-year, while meals and beverages declined a more modest 4%. But the margin gap is what really stands out: snacks produced just $67 million in operating earnings on $914 million in revenue — a 7.3% operating margin. Meals and beverages, by contrast, delivered $252 million on $1.65 billion — a 15.3% margin.

This traces back to Campbell's 2018 acquisition of Snyder's-Lance, which in hindsight was an overpay. Budget-conscious consumers are trading down to private label alternatives, which reached a record 21.2% market share in early 2026. Campbell's is absorbing costs rather than raising prices further — a margin-destructive dynamic.

3. S&P 500 Removal Risk and Credit Downgrade

Campbell's market cap has shrunk below $7 billion, making it one of the three smallest S&P 500 components. This puts the company at real risk of index removal — which would trigger forced selling from the massive pool of passive index funds tracking the S&P 500.

Adding to the pressure, Fitch Ratings downgraded Campbell's long-term debt rating to BBB- from BBB, citing sustained high leverage and a projected 13% decline in EBITDA for fiscal 2026. Multiple Wall Street analysts have also cut their price targets: UBS lowered to $20, Morgan Stanley to $28, and Cowen to $24.

Technical Indicators: Deeply Oversold

CPB is registering extreme oversold readings across multiple timeframes.

A daily RSI of 24.3 is rare for a consumer staples stock. A weekly RSI of 25.3 confirms this is not just a short-term dip — it reflects sustained, multi-week selling pressure. The XTRM score of -175.23 on the daily chart puts CPB in the most extreme oversold territory tracked by our indicators.

The pattern of recent pivot lows shows accelerating deterioration:

• $27.64 on December 22, 2025
• $25.62 on January 8, 2026
• $25.89 on January 20, 2026
• $21.19 all-time low on March 16, 2026

Each bounce has been weaker and shorter-lived than the last. Volume on the most recent session was 86% below its 30-day average — this thin-volume drift lower can sometimes precede a capitulation flush or an exhaustion reversal, but neither is confirmed yet.

Key Support: $20.24

The next major support level sits at $20.24. A healthy test of this level would involve a brief dip toward $20.24 followed by a sharp rebound on rising volume — ideally with RSI showing bullish divergence (price making a new low while RSI makes a higher low). That would suggest sellers are exhausting.

A decisive break below $20.24 on heavy volume would be more concerning. It would open the door to price discovery with no meaningful historical support below, potentially accelerating losses — especially if an S&P 500 removal forces index fund liquidation.

Fundamental Context: How Cheap Is Cheap?

CPB currently trades at a P/E of 11.8x. That is not just cheap — it is historically anomalous for this stock.

Campbell's 10-year median P/E is approximately 21.1x. The current 11.8x multiple represents a 44% discount to its own historical norm. Against sector peers like Conagra, General Mills, and Kraft Heinz — which typically trade in the 14-18x range — Campbell's is at a substantial discount.

The dividend yield has swelled to approximately 7.2%, which is among the highest in the entire S&P 500 and roughly five times the index average. Fiscal 2026 EPS guidance of $2.15-$2.25 still covers the $1.56 annual dividend, but the company has halted share buybacks and will not be increasing the dividend near-term. The payout ratio at the midpoint sits around 71% — not in danger zone, but not comfortable either if earnings deteriorate further.

Outlook

Campbell's is facing a convergence of problems: declining earnings, a failing snacks segment, credit downgrades, tariff-driven cost inflation, and the looming threat of S&P 500 index removal. These are not abstract risks — they are actively compressing the stock.

At the same time, a 62.5% decline from peak, a sub-12x P/E, a 7%+ dividend yield, and extreme oversold readings on both daily and weekly timeframes are starting to draw attention from value-oriented investors. The valuation is at multi-decade lows. The sell-off has priced in a significant amount of bad news.

The question is whether the bad news is fully priced — or whether S&P 500 removal, further guidance cuts, or a dividend reduction could push CPB even lower. The $20.24 support level is the line worth monitoring closely. How the stock behaves around that zone — whether it holds or breaks — will likely determine Campbell's trajectory for the rest of 2026.

This is not a stock to chase. But for investors tracking deeply oversold consumer staples names, CPB is approaching an area that is, at minimum, worth close attention.