Oversold

ACGL

Valuation53/ 100
Cash flow & growth66/ 100
Upside potential32/ 100
Risk potential24/ 100

ACGL's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages, but weaker than expected earnings are holding it back.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 0.7%, from $98.84 to $98.10. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 1.3 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 7.5× versus the full-history median of 8.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 61.4/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 52.5/100. The model applies a -3.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 8.2× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 7.9× PE and $13.4 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +0.7%, earnings +32.1%, operating margin +4.6 percentage points. The business score is 65.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $13.40 of EPS and a 7.9× PE, suggesting about $106.44 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $110.50. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $10.19 of EPS and a 7.1× PE, suggesting a share price of about $72.77 — 24% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ACGL vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE7.5x9.7x22% lower
PE percentile245052% lower
EPS$12.79$7.7565% higher
FCF$6.1B$4.8B26% higher
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ACGL’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

ACGL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationDeteriorating
Forward earningsDecline
Forward revenueDecline
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

ACGL’s outlook is weakening, with weaker expected earnings weighing on the picture.

ACGL PE Valuation

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This table applies ACGL's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ACGL Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ACGL's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ACGL Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ACGL's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ACGL Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ACGL's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ACGL Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ACGL's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ACGL Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ACGL PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares ACGL's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ACGL Weekly Price

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This chart uses ACGL's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ACGL Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ACGL's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ACGL Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.