Oversold

HRL

Valuation26/ 100
Cash flow & growth48/ 100
Upside potential26/ 100
Risk potential28/ 100

HRL's valuation is somewhat elevated, fundamentals are below averages, while forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins.

Score change since last week

The score fell 11 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 0.1%, from $21.57 to $21.54.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 11.1 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 32.6× versus the full-history median of 21.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 25.5/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 25.5/100. The model applies a 10.3% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 21.5× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 29× PE and $0.8 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +0.7%, earnings -54%. Free cash flow is 6.4% of revenue. The business score is 47.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $0.75 of EPS and a 29× PE, suggesting about $21.84 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $23.66. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $0.53 of EPS and a 27.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $14.80 — 28% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

HRL vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE33x22x46% higher
PE percentile10050101% higher
EPS$0.63$1.5158% lower
FCF$780.9M$785.8M1% lower
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HRL’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

HRL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

HRL’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

HRL PE Valuation

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This table applies HRL's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

HRL Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks HRL's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

HRL Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks HRL's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

HRL Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks HRL's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

HRL Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in HRL's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

HRL Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

HRL PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector

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This chart compares HRL's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Defensive sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

HRL Weekly Price

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This chart uses HRL's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

HRL Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares HRL's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

HRL Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.