Oversold

APO

Valuation21/ 100
Cash flow & growth51/ 100
Upside potential25/ 100
Risk potential31/ 100

APO's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins.

Score change since last week

The score fell 11 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 1.0%, from $135.04 to $133.67.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 10.7 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 28.9× versus the full-history median of 16.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 19.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 20.9/100. The model applies a 16.5% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 19.2× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 24.6× PE and $5.6 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +41.4%, earnings -16.4%, operating margin -4 percentage points. The business score is 50.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $5.61 of EPS and a 24.6× PE, suggesting about $138.20 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $148.33. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $3.83 of EPS and a 23.3× PE, suggesting a share price of about $89.33 — 31% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

APO vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE29x22x29% higher
PE percentile845068% higher
EPS$4.47$4.431% higher
FCF$8B-$382.9M+$8.4B
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APO’s earnings are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

APO Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStrong decline
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionTight

APO’s outlook is generally improving, with declining sales expectations a concern.

APO PE Valuation

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This table applies APO's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

APO Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks APO's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

APO Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks APO's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

APO Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks APO's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

APO Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in APO's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

APO Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

APO PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares APO's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

APO Weekly Price

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This chart uses APO's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

APO Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares APO's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

APO Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.