Oversold

AFL

Same as last week
Valuation27/ 100
Cash flow & growth77/ 100
Upside potential38/ 100
Risk potential26/ 100

AFL's valuation is somewhat elevated while fundamentals provide solid support and a weakening outlook adds pressure, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 12.4× versus the full-history median of 9.2× shown in the valuation table, producing 30.8/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 27.3/100. The model applies a 3% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 13× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 13.1× PE and $10.3 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +11.6%, earnings +110.3%, operating margin +12.4 percentage points. The business score is 77.1/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $10.33 of EPS and a 13.1× PE, suggesting a share price of about $135.43. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 17.5% upside, or about $135.45.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $7.81 of EPS and a 11× PE, suggesting a share price of about $85.93 — 26% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

AFL vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE12x10x19% higher
PE percentile765052% higher
EPS$9.28$7.2328% higher
FCF$2.6B$3.9B31% lower
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AFL’s fundamentals are mixed relative to their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

AFL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStable
Forward earningsStable
Forward revenueDecline
Forward profitabilityStrongly contracting
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

AFL’s outlook is weakening, with declining sales expectations a concern.

AFL PE Valuation

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This table applies AFL's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

AFL Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks AFL's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

AFL Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks AFL's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

AFL Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks AFL's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

AFL Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in AFL's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

AFL Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

AFL PE vs Financial Services Sector

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This chart compares AFL's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Financial Services sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

AFL Weekly Price

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This chart uses AFL's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

AFL Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares AFL's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

AFL Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.