Oversold

ODFL

Valuation53/ 100
Cash flow & growth60/ 100
Upside potential50/ 100
Risk potential30/ 100

ODFL's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 6.4%, from $198.63 to $185.87. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 1.3 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 34.6× versus the full-history median of 33.5× shown in the valuation table, producing 47.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 52.8/100. The model applies a 20.9% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 33.7× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 35.1× PE and $6.8 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -0.6%, earnings +1.4%, operating margin +0.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 19.9% of revenue. The business score is 59.6/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $6.75 of EPS and a 35.1× PE, suggesting a share price of about $237.22. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 31.9% upside, or about $237.14.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $4.49 of EPS and a 27.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $125.59 — 30% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ODFL vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE35x33x4% higher
PE percentile575014% higher
EPS$5.19$4.877% higher
FCF$1.1B$824.4M35% higher
Loading historical comparisons…

ODFL’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

ODFL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionTight

ODFL’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

ODFL PE Valuation

Loading pe valuation table…

This table applies ODFL's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ODFL Earnings Per Share

Loading earnings per share…

This chart tracks ODFL's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ODFL Quarterly Revenue

Loading quarterly revenue…

This chart tracks ODFL's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ODFL Free Cash Flow

Loading free cash flow…

This chart tracks ODFL's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ODFL Total Shares

Loading shares over time…

This chart tracks changes in ODFL's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ODFL Net Leverage

Loading net leverage…

Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ODFL PE vs Industrials Sector

Loading pe vs sector average…

This chart compares ODFL's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Industrials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ODFL Weekly Price

Loading weekly price…

This chart uses ODFL's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ODFL Weekly Moving Averages

Loading weekly moving averages…

This chart compares ODFL's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ODFL Yearly ROI

Loading yearly ROI…

Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.