Oversold

HCA

Valuation47/ 100
Cash flow & growth64/ 100
Upside potential49/ 100
Risk potential23/ 100

HCA's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and the outlook is broadly stable.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 3.1%, from $417.82 to $405.00. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 0.6 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 14.3× versus the full-history median of 13.9× shown in the valuation table, producing 48.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 46.8/100. The model applies a 7.7% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 14.9× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 15.2× PE and $34.6 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +7.3%, earnings +25.5%, operating margin +0.2 percentage points. Free cash flow is 7.7% of revenue. The business score is 64.2/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $34.56 of EPS and a 15.2× PE, suggesting a share price of about $525.30. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 23% upside, or about $525.14.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $25.63 of EPS and a 12.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $329.66 — 23% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

HCA vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE14x14x2% higher
PE percentile445011% lower
EPS$29.87$20.0149% higher
FCF$6B$5.1B18% higher
Loading historical comparisons…

HCA’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

HCA Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStable
Forward earningsStable
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionTight

HCA’s outlook is generally stable.

HCA PE Valuation

Loading pe valuation table…

This table applies HCA's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

HCA Earnings Per Share

Loading earnings per share…

This chart tracks HCA's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

HCA Quarterly Revenue

Loading quarterly revenue…

This chart tracks HCA's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

HCA Free Cash Flow

Loading free cash flow…

This chart tracks HCA's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

HCA Total Shares

Loading shares over time…

This chart tracks changes in HCA's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

HCA Net Leverage

Loading net leverage…

Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

HCA PE vs Healthcare Sector

Loading pe vs sector average…

This chart compares HCA's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Healthcare sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

HCA Weekly Price

Loading weekly price…

This chart uses HCA's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

HCA Weekly Moving Averages

Loading weekly moving averages…

This chart compares HCA's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

HCA Yearly ROI

Loading yearly ROI…

Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.