Oversold

SJM

Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth75/ 100
Upside potential41/ 100
Risk potential23/ 100

SJM's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins.

Score change since last week

The score fell 13 points, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 4.7%, from $132.34 to $126.08.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 13.3 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +5.1%, operating margin +30.8 percentage points. Free cash flow is 17.3% of revenue. The business score is 74.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Business trends and outlook support upside. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 15.5% upside, or about $139.92.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Historical price swings are the main risk driver, even without a sharp profit decline.

The stock’s historical price swings drive this figure; the separate operating stress is 21.5%. Price history and operating stress provide the reference because comparable earnings do not support a future PE target. Operating stress reflects revenue, earnings, margins, outlook and relevant debt exposure. The larger stress gives 22.6% downside, or about $93.76, with a 15% minimum.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

SJM vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE57x18x218% higher
PE percentile10050100% higher
EPS$2.14$1.6430% higher
FCF$1.6B$829.9M91% higher
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SJM’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

SJM Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

SJM’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

SJM PE Valuation

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This table applies SJM's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

SJM Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks SJM's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

SJM Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks SJM's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

SJM Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks SJM's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

SJM Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in SJM's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

SJM Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

SJM PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector

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This chart compares SJM's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Defensive sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

SJM Weekly Price

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This chart uses SJM's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

SJM Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares SJM's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

SJM Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.