Oversold

ADM

Valuation20/ 100
Cash flow & growth60/ 100
Upside potential50/ 100
Risk potential30/ 100

ADM's valuation is expensive, fundamentals are below averages, while forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though analyst coverage is limited.

Score change since last week

The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 3.8%, from $81.54 to $84.61. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 0.4 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 23.8× versus the full-history median of 12.8× shown in the valuation table, producing 16.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 20.2/100. The model applies a 28.4% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 16.2× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 23.4× PE and $5.1 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue -0.8%, earnings +61%, operating margin +1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 2% of revenue. The business score is 59.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $5.09 of EPS and a 23.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $119.12. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 37.4% upside, or about $119.15.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $3.10 of EPS and a 19.6× PE, suggesting a share price of about $60.87 — 30% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

ADM vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE24x15x57% higher
PE percentile855071% higher
EPS$3.65$4.6922% lower
FCF$1.7B$2.5B32% lower
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ADM’s earnings and cash flow are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

ADM Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionModerate

ADM’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

ADM PE Valuation

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This table applies ADM's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

ADM Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks ADM's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

ADM Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks ADM's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

ADM Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks ADM's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

ADM Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in ADM's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

ADM Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

ADM PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector

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This chart compares ADM's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Defensive sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

ADM Weekly Price

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This chart uses ADM's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

ADM Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares ADM's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

ADM Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.