Oversold

MAR

Valuation40/ 100
Cash flow & growth63/ 100
Upside potential29/ 100
Risk potential27/ 100

MAR's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings and revenue growth.

Score change since last week

The score rose 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price fell 4.2%, from $351.08 to $336.51. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the lower price improved valuation support.

Valuation and price changes added 0.8 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 35× versus the full-history median of 29.8× shown in the valuation table, producing 39.2/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 40/100. The model applies a 11.8% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 30.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 32× PE and $11.5 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +4.7%, earnings +8%, operating margin +0.7 percentage points. Free cash flow is 11.6% of revenue. The business score is 62.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $11.51 of EPS and a 32× PE, suggesting about $368.10 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $384.89. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $8.21 of EPS and a 29.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $244.91 — 27% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

MAR vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE35x51x32% lower
PE percentile675034% higher
EPS$9.57$6.2852% higher
FCF$3.1B$1.9B62% higher
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MAR’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

MAR Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStable
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionModerate

MAR’s outlook is generally improving, with growth expectations supporting the valuation case.

MAR PE Valuation

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This table applies MAR's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

MAR Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks MAR's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

MAR Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks MAR's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

MAR Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks MAR's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

MAR Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in MAR's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

MAR Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

MAR PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

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This chart compares MAR's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Consumer Cyclical sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

MAR Weekly Price

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This chart uses MAR's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

MAR Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares MAR's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

MAR Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.