Oversold

PSX

Valuation42/ 100
Cash flow & growth79/ 100
Upside potential61/ 100
Risk potential31/ 100

PSX's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to earnings growth and improving margins, though estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 4.5%, from $244.01 to $255.09. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 0.8 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 14.8× versus the full-history median of 11.3× shown in the valuation table, producing 32.6/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 41.8/100. The model applies a 36.4% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 16.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 16.4× PE and $26 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +15.8%, earnings +322.1%, operating margin +6.3 percentage points. Free cash flow is 4.2% of revenue. The business score is 79.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $26.01 of EPS and a 16.4× PE, suggesting a share price of about $426.27. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 64.3% upside, or about $426.31.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $15.07 of EPS and a 11.8× PE, suggesting a share price of about $178.13 — 31% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

PSX vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE15x17x15% lower
PE percentile605020% higher
EPS$17.55$7.90122% higher
FCF$6.4B$3.7B73% higher
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PSX’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is lower.

PSX Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueStable
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionWide

PSX’s outlook is generally improving, though analysts differ widely on the estimates.

PSX PE Valuation

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This table applies PSX's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

PSX Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks PSX's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

PSX Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks PSX's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

PSX Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks PSX's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

PSX Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in PSX's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

PSX Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

PSX PE vs Energy Sector

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This chart compares PSX's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Energy sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

PSX Weekly Price

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This chart uses PSX's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

PSX Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares PSX's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

PSX Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.