Historical cheapness: current PE is 35.4× versus the full-history median of 29.3× shown in the valuation table, producing 37.4/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 38.3/100. The model applies a 11.9% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 30.6× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 32.3× PE and $8.2 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +12.7%, earnings +10.1%, operating margin -0.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 23.2% of revenue. The business score is 68.7/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $8.22 of EPS and a 32.3× PE, suggesting about $265.58 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $278.15. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $5.90 of EPS and a 31× PE, suggesting a share price of about $182.79 — 24% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.