Historical cheapness: current PE is 10.7× versus the full-history median of 10.8× shown in the valuation table, producing 50.7/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 49/100. The model applies a 6.6% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 10.1× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 10.6× PE and $9.4 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue -0.9%, earnings +277.4%, operating margin +15.7 percentage points. Free cash flow is -1.4% of revenue. The business score is 68.8/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

The earnings calculation and the displayed scenario are different.

The earnings case uses $9.43 of EPS and a 10.6× PE, suggesting about $99.53 before the minimum is applied. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The model applies a 15% minimum upside scenario, so the card shows +15%, or about $100.57. That adjusted price does not come from the EPS × PE calculation above.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $6.93 of EPS and a 8.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $61.79 — 29% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.