Oversold

COP

Valuation27/ 100
Cash flow & growth66/ 100
Upside potential36/ 100
Risk potential30/ 100

COP's valuation is somewhat elevated, fundamentals are above averages and forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though estimates vary widely.

Score change since last week

The score fell 1 point, mainly due to valuation and price changes. Price rose 3.0%, from $130.35 to $134.26. Reported EPS was unchanged, so the higher price reduced valuation support.

Valuation and price changes subtracted 0.4 points. The comparison uses the same available inputs on both dates. Displayed changes are rounded to whole points.

Valuation

Historical cheapness: current PE is 18.2× versus the full-history median of 11.7× shown in the valuation table, producing 23.3/100. Positive weekly observations receive equal weight; lower past EPS alone does not disqualify them.

Outlook-adjusted valuation: 26.7/100. The model applies a 22.1% earnings-growth assumption and a 10% annual return hurdle, with positive credit limited by evidence coverage and confidence.

Forward price scenarios use recent PE history separately. Recent history has a separately weighted median of 12.3× (18-month half-life). The favorable scenario uses 15.9× PE and $10 projected EPS, informed by growth, margins and earnings-quality checks. This is a model scenario, not an analyst target. A return to the full-history median is not assumed.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are strong. Over the past year: revenue +9.6%, earnings +1.3%, operating margin -0.1 percentage points. Free cash flow is 30.9% of revenue. The business score is 66.4/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Stronger earnings and valuation could support a higher share price.

Our favorable case uses $10.01 of EPS and a 15.9× PE, suggesting a share price of about $159.14. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

The displayed favorable scenario is 15.9% upside, or about $159.19.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

Weaker than expected earnings could put pressure on the share price.

Our downside case uses $6.40 of EPS and a 15× PE, suggesting a share price of about $96.12 — 30% below today’s price. Valuation history and outlook inform the PE.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

COP vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE18x13x37% higher
PE percentile865072% higher
EPS$7.55$7.057% higher
FCF$19.6B$10.9B79% higher
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COP’s earnings and cash flow are above their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

COP Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationStrongly improving
Forward earningsStrong growth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityExpanding
Analyst coverageModerate
Estimate dispersionWide

COP’s outlook is generally improving, though analysts differ widely on the estimates.

COP PE Valuation

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This table applies COP's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

COP Earnings Per Share

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This chart tracks COP's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

COP Quarterly Revenue

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This chart tracks COP's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

COP Free Cash Flow

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This chart tracks COP's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

COP Total Shares

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This chart tracks changes in COP's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

COP Net Leverage

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Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

COP PE vs Energy Sector

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This chart compares COP's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Energy sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

COP Weekly Price

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This chart uses COP's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

COP Weekly Moving Averages

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This chart compares COP's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

COP Yearly ROI

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Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.