Oversold

APD

Same as last week
Valuation50/ 100
Cash flow & growth47/ 100
Upside potential30/ 100
Risk potential35/ 100

APD's valuation appears fair, fundamentals are somewhat mixed, while forward estimates point to improving growth and profitability, though analyst coverage is limited.

Valuation

Valuation stays neutral because earnings are difficult to compare across periods. Business trends, outlook and financial risk still contribute to the overall score.

Cash flow & growth

Business trends are mixed. Over the past year: revenue +4.5%, operating margin -17.4 percentage points. Free cash flow is 16.3% of revenue. The business score is 47.1/100. Growth, margins and cash generation drive the score. Missing or older data receives less weight.

Favorable scenario

Weaker business results limit upside support. Price history provides the reference because earnings are difficult to compare.

The calculation starts with the stock’s typical weekly price movements, adjusted for business performance and outlook. Unusually large jumps have less influence. The result is 15% upside, or about $335.14. This uses the 15% minimum allowance.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

Downside scenario

The 34.6% downside is driven by operating stress: the model assumes earnings fall 23% and the PE falls 15%. That gives $7.19 per share at a 26.5× PE, or about $190.65. Price swings alone suggest 23.6% downside.

This is a scenario based on our model, not a forecast or probability.

APD vs Historical averages

MetricCurrentAverageRelative
PE31x26x18% higher
PE percentile885077% higher
EPS-$0.21$9.20102% lower
FCF$2.1B-$1.1B+$3.2B
Loading historical comparisons…

APD’s earnings are below their historical averages, while its earnings multiple is higher.

APD Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Forward valuationImproving
Forward earningsGrowth
Forward revenueGrowth
Forward profitabilityStrongly expanding
Analyst coverageLimited
Estimate dispersionTight

APD’s outlook is generally improving, though analyst coverage is limited.

APD PE Valuation

Loading pe valuation table…

This table applies APD's historical price-to-earnings (PE) landmarks to current earnings. The implied prices are valuation scenarios, not price forecasts or targets.

APD Earnings Per Share

Loading earnings per share…

This chart tracks APD's trailing twelve-month diluted earnings per share, calculated from four consecutive reported quarters to reduce seasonal noise.

APD Quarterly Revenue

Loading quarterly revenue…

This chart tracks APD's quarterly revenue over time and shows how sales are changing from year to year.

APD Free Cash Flow

Loading free cash flow…

This chart tracks APD's free cash flow over time, showing whether the business is consistently generating cash after operating costs and capital spending.

APD Total Shares

Loading shares over time…

This chart tracks changes in APD's diluted share count. A rising count can dilute existing owners, while a falling count often reflects share repurchases.

APD Net Leverage

Loading net leverage…

Quarterly Net Leverage uses the last 12 months of EBITDA. A falling multiple generally indicates less debt relative to earnings capacity. Negative values mean net cash; missing data or nonpositive LTM EBITDA are N/A. The table shows each period’s Net Leverage and status.

APD PE vs Basic Materials Sector

Loading pe vs sector average…

This chart compares APD's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio with the Basic Materials sector average. A discount or premium can reflect differences in expected growth, profitability, or risk.

APD Weekly Price

Loading weekly price…

This chart uses APD's weekly closing prices to show the longer-term trend. The lower panes show weekly RSI and Stochastic momentum.

APD Weekly Moving Averages

Loading weekly moving averages…

This chart compares APD's 8, 20, 50, 100, and 200-week moving averages from 2020 onward. Shorter averages react faster to price changes, while longer averages show the broader trend.

APD Yearly ROI

Loading yearly ROI…

Each line starts at 0% using the year’s first dependable weekly close and tracks the return through December, or through the latest available week for the current year.